2025 F1 driver market: what does the future hold for Carlos Sainz?

The 2024 season has been quite the rollercoaster for Carlos Sainz thus far. It started with him being let go by Ferrari, making way for the inbound Lewis Hamilton. Since then, the Spaniard has responded with the guile and on-track prowess you’d expect from a driver of his calibre.

In retaliation to the Scuderia snub, Carlos duly took the title of ‘best of the rest’ behind the Red Bulls at the Bahrain season opener, reminding prospective employers of his talents and that he is indeed, #OpenToWork.

READ MORE: Fierce fighting at Ferrari, Verstappen back on top in Bahrain

Appendicitis at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix disrupts momentum

During the following race weekend in Saudi Arabia, Sainz would swap his SF-24 cockpit for a hospital bed. Instead of brushing the walls of the Jeddah Corniche Circuit at breakneck speed, he was going under the knife for an acute case of appendicitis.

Super sub, Ollie Bearman would take his place and score points in an impressive debut race, but it was something of a missed opportunity for Sainz to continue his superb run of form.

READ MORE: Brits battle it out as Bearman sparks sensation in Saudi Arabia 

Sainz back to winning ways in Melbourne

Just two weeks after undergoing surgery, the #55 driver wasn’t just back on his feet, but stood atop the Australian Grand Prix podium having won the race convincingly from his team-mate.

READ MORE: Everything we learned from F1's opening three races of 2024

He followed that up with a third podium at the Japanese Grand Prix, and a pair of fifth-place finishes at the Chinese Grand Prix Sprint weekend, marking a truly exceptional start to the season and one that puts him in the driving seat of his own destiny.

So, what next? 

The culmination of these events has resulted in the Spaniard dominating 2025 F1 driver market speculation, but he is keeping his options open, for now.

Several possible futures stretch out before the 29-year-old. He’s reached a fork in the road; one he must astutely negotiate if he is to remain at the front of the field in the seasons ahead. Over the coming months, he will carefully consider which will offer him the best opportunity to fight for wins and championships, both now and in the new era of 2026 engine regulations. With that in mind, we gaze into our crystal ball and ask the question: “What does the future hold for Carlos Sainz?”

Aston Martin: Out of the running

Probability: Very unlikely 

With Aston Martin’s retention of compatriot Fernando now confirmed, the Silverstone-based team is off the table, barring any surprise F1 exits from Lance Stroll.

Red Bull: Will Perez stay, or will he go?

Probability: Even chance

The most sought-after seat on the 2025 grid remains a question mark at this stage. Sergio Perez may have started the season well with three second-place finishes from four races, but the Mexican has shown strong form early in a season before; in 2023 he won two of the opening four Grand Prix.

Red Bull’s ruthlessness when it comes to driver performance is well documented, so it would come as no surprise if Perez was dismissed to make way for Sainz, but the two Visa Cash App RB drivers are also waiting in the wings. Carlos’ split from the Red Bull family was an amicable one too, so it’s not out of the question.  

Mercedes: Antonelli a contender, but not a certainty

Probability: Likely

Hamilton has been Mercedes’ star driver for over a decade, leaving a sizeable pair of racing boots for the team’s next driver to fill. Sainz looks to be in the running to do just that, with Team Principal and CEO Toto Wolff stating that the Spaniard is up for consideration.

The only sticking point here, is Mercedes protégé Kimi Antonelli. Currently racing in Formula 2 for Prema Racing, Antonelli is the likely candidate should he impress during his maiden campaign, but an understated start to the season has brought such an early promotion into question. Perhaps, then, a Williams seat is the better option for Antonelli to get up to speed in the interim, leaving the door open for Sainz to partner George Russell.

Stake F1 Team Kick Sauber/Audi: Under pressure

Probability: Likely

Reports suggest Audi is pressuring Carlos for a long-term deal, meaning he’d have to endure a year with the team in its current form before the switch to Audi in earnest for 2026. A small price to pay should the German marque make an immediate splash in F1, but a sizeable gamble at such a pivotal point in a driver’s career.

This option brings with it plenty of positives, though.  Sainz worked with Andreas Seidl, who’s heading up Audi’s F1 effort, during his two years at McLaren. Not to mention Carlos Sainz Snr’s strong ties to Audi, racing with the German marque in Dakar Rally for the past three years. This one really could have legs.

Williams, Alpine, or Visa Cash App RB: Plenty of seats available

Probability: Unlikely

Although the second half of the grid may not be as appealing in the short term, there are some enticing long-term prospects to be had outside the current top 10. Take Alpine for example, its 2024 form may not be the greatest pull for Carlos, but it is a factory-backed outfit, they were able to challenge for podiums last season, and it wouldn’t be unfamiliar territory after his years with the team under its Renault guise.

Williams is also a team known to be a fan of the Spaniard’s abilities, and with ex-Mercedes man James Vowles at the helm, the team is implementing a long-term plan that could see it return to the front of the grid, and Carlos could be an instrumental part of that. Red Bull, meanwhile, may decide to offer its second car to Yuki Tsunoda or Daniel Ricciardo, in which case Visa Cash App RB could be an option if he’s willing to play the waiting game for the top seat.

Whichever path Carlos Sainz decides to walk for 2025, one thing is certain; recent developments have made him the biggest player in the most wide-open driver market we’ve seen for many years. Teams up and down the grid will be eager to sign the only non-Red Bull race winner of the past two seasons.