Can Norris win the F1 championship?
22 August 2024For the first time since the memorable 2021 title showdown, there’s a real possibility that a driver not in a Red Bull and not named Max Verstappen could win the F1 Drivers’ Championship.
Although the chances are slim, Great Britain’s Lando Norris lies 52 points shy of the Dutchman. That isn’t an insurmountable task considering the current lack of pace for Red Bull and comparative abundance of it for McLaren, not to mention the likes of Ferrari and Mercedes getting amongst it and stealing points from Max.
There have been similar comebacks in recent memory too, with Sebastien Vettel overcoming a 39-point deficit to Fernando Alonso in the 2012 season. Join us as we evaluate the hypothetical scenarios that could win Norris the 2024 F1 championship.
Two DNFs, two wins
Granted, this one is unlikely but if Verstappen were to fall out of the points – or DNF – at Austin and Mexico City, while Norris took back-to-back victories and fastest laps, the pair would be level on points with four rounds remaining. And that’s without even bringing the Sprint Race in America into consideration.
Again, there’s a very low probability that this will happen. Verstappen, while no longer at the heights of those early races, is still capable of consistent points-scoring drives.
A winning steak for Norris
The McLaren was the class of the field in Singapore, there’s no denying that with a winning margin of over 20 seconds. So if Norris and the Woking-based team were to continue that form, winning each of the six remaining races, taking the fastest lap, and winning the three remaining Sprint Races with Max following him home in second on each occasion, Lando would fall just one point shy of the Dutchman’s tally come the chequered flag in Abu Dhabi.
Max, then, would have to drop to third in one of the remaining Grand Prix to hand Lando the title by two points. This one is also a long shot, but not impossible considering Max took 10 straight wins last year and McLaren’s current form looks equally as ominous.
A realistic prospect
Now for slightly more plausible circumstances: If Norris were to record two wins, two seconds and two thirds from the final six races – something he has achieved in the last nine races, a lot of them with a less competitive car than he has now – and Max took four fifths and two fourths – in that same nine-race stretch he has finished fourth or lower on five occasions – that would put the pair equal on points, even without factoring in Sprints and fastest laps.
What if Norris continued on his current trajectory?
Since the summer break, there have been four races in the Netherlands, Italy, Azerbaijan and most recently in Singapore. In that time, two wins, a third, a fourth and three fastest laps have yielded 80 points for Norris, while Max took 54 points from two seconds, a fifth and a sixth.
Averaged out, Norris has gained 6.5 points per race on Max – just under the seven-point difference between first and second. Continuing at that rate with six events remaining, he’d make up 39 points, leaving him 13 shy of what he needs, 10 if he finished first and Max second in each of the Sprints.
Realistically, Norris must make up nine points per event to take the title, leaving him two points ahead of Max in the final reckoning. Since the summer break, he’s managed to claw back eight points on two occasions—the Dutch and Italian Grand Prix—but hasn't surpassed that figure.
What he can ill afford at this stage is more weekends like Azerbaijan which was only a three-point swing in his favour. Norris needs to be faultless from this point forward.
Ultimately, this is all hypothetical, and there is only one path through the chaos of the final six races to crown Norris as the 2024 F1 Drivers' Champion. As we’ve discussed, the route that path will take is largely out of his control. Even if he won every race from this point on, Max would still have to falter at some point to be overhauled. All we can do is watch and wait to see if Norris and McLaren can navigate the remainder of the season to deliver one of the sport’s greatest-ever comebacks.
