Championship chances: Who can still win the 2024 F1 title?
30 October 2024Despite early season Max Verstappen domination and a substantial points gap between the top of the table and the chasing pack, there’s a sense that the 2024 F1 Drivers’ Championship is still wide open as we head into the final four races.
Four teams have scored victories in 2024, and since the summer break any one of three teams – Ferrari, Red Bull and McLaren – have been in contention at multiple events. So, even with a 47-point advantage heading to Brazil, Max isn’t entirely safe, especially after the events of the Mexican Grand Prix.
READ MORE: What to watch out for in the remainder of the 2024 F1 season
How many races are left?
Results have been called for 20 rounds so far in 2024, and now just four races remain: the Brazilian Grand Prix (and Sprint), the Las Vegas Grand Prix, the Qatar Grand Prix (and Sprint) and the season finale Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
How many points are up for grabs?
With two Sprints and four Grand Prix left, there are 16 Sprint points up for grabs, as well as 100 Grand Prix points and four for fastest laps still to play for. That leaves 120 total points on the table between now and the chequered flag in Abu Dhabi.
Who’s got momentum?
Since the summer break, Charles Leclerc has scored the most points of anyone on 129, while Lando has scored 116, Max recorded 85 and Oscar 84. Momentum is very much with the Ferrari driver, then, but with pace being so track-dependent this season, it may not stay that way for long.
Who can still get the job done?
Lando Norris, Charles Leclerc and Oscar Piastri are the only drivers still in contention with four events left. Not even a win for Williams-bound Carlos Sainz could keep him in the hunt in Mexico as he relinquished his mathematical chances of the title.
Chipping away
As it stands, Lando is Max’s closest challenger with 47 points separating the pair. A controversial penalty for the Brit in Texas meant he dropped points for the first time since the Belgian Grand Prix in July. But then, in Mexico City, Lando clawed back 10 points – the most he’s gained on the Dutchman since his retirement from the Australian Grand Prix in March – after an equally headline-inducing pair of penalties for Max.
Reducing a 47-point gap is a big ask of Lando in four events, but if other drivers can continue putting fresh air between himself and Max, stealing valuable points from the reigning champion or if Verstappen were to suffer a DNF, it is still very doable. If Lando were to win each of the remaining four Grand Prix with Max finishing third, he’d only need to beat Verstappen by one position in each of the two remaining Sprints and claim one fastest lap point to take the title in Abu Dhabi. None of that is out of the question in 2024.
Resurgent in red
Wins in Monza and COTA and five podiums from the six post-summer break races make Charles the in-form driver. Since its upgrade package in Monza, on average Ferrari has looked easily as quick, if not quicker than the McLarens and Red Bulls. With 71 points separating the Monégasque and the Dutchman, it’s a tall order but theoretically still possible if Max were to suffer from some misfortune in the final rounds.
Charles needs an average of 18 points per event in the final four rounds to be in with a shout, and the difference between a win – where Leclerc has finished twice in the last five races – and sixth – where Verstappen has finished twice in the last five races – is 17 points. Again, it’s plausible in the context of this season and once points for fastest laps and Sprints are taken into account, it doesn’t seem quite so insurmountable.
An outside chance
Oscar Piastri’s chances of championship glory in 2024 are slim, very slim. But not impossible. With a 111-point gulf separating them, the only way he could realistically overhaul that deficit would be for Max to DNF in all bar one race and for Oscar to win all remaining races. The most unlikely scenario, granted, but there’s still a chance.
Whoever ends up claiming the 2024 crown, this F1 season has had a second wind in its latter half, keeping fans guessing long after that early season Red Bull dominance. One thing is for certain in the final four rounds, we’re in for a tantalising showdown that not even the most knowledgeable pundits can predict.
