How could Norris take the F1 title?
22 August 2024For the first time since the memorable 2021 title showdown, there’s a real possibility that a driver not in a Red Bull and not named Max Verstappen could win the F1 Drivers’ Championship.
Although the chances are slim, Great Britain’s Lando Norris lies 78 points shy of the Dutchman in the points, and that isn’t an insurmountable task considering the current lack of pace for Red Bull and comparative abundance of it for McLaren.
There have been similar comebacks in recent memory too, with Sebastien Vettel overcoming a 39-point deficit to Fernando Alonso at the halfway point of the 2012 season. Join us as we evaluate the hypothetical scenarios that could win Norris the title.
Three DNFs, three wins
Granted, this one is very unlikely but if Verstappen were to fall out of the points – or DNF – at Zandvoort, Monza and Baku, while Norris took a hat-trick of victories, the pair would be almost level on points with seven rounds remaining. This would also bring the likes of Charles Leclerc and Oscar Piastri, maybe even Lewis Hamilton into the mix for the title.
Again, there’s a very low probability that this will happen. Verstappen, while no longer at the heights of those early races, is still capable of consistent points-scoring drives. And likewise, Norris has only won one race, with some inconsistencies in his form making the chance of three wins in a row unlikely.
A 10-win run, and a podium streak
We appreciate this may seem farfetched, but if Norris were to go on a run of 10 wins until the end of the season – a figure Max achieved last season – and Verstappen secured the same number of second-place finishes, it would all come down to the Sprint Races and Fastest Lap points.
If the pair finished one-two in Sprints as they had done in the Grand Prix and Norris secured half of the Fastest Laps with Verstappen not taking any of them, they would finish equal on points and on countback, Lando would take it
A realistic prospect
Now for some more realistic potential scenarios. If Lando were to finish second for the remaining races and Max finished fifth at each of those events – which has been a regular finishing position for them both in recent races – then Norris would lead his friend and rival by two points.
If you then factor in Sprint Races and Fastest Lap points, there could be some exciting permutations and potentially a tense, last-race showdown in Abu Dhabi once more. Whatever the case, if each driver remained consistent with their usual form over the last handful of races, we could have a championship fight on our hands.
Not out of the question
The resurgence of Mercedes in the last four races is something to factor into this equation as well. If George Russell and Lewis Hamilton finished in the top two positions from the Dutch Grand Prix onwards and Lando came third, Verstappen would only have to finish sixth in the remaining races for there to be an eight-point difference in Abu Dhabi. Once again, if Sprints and Fastest Laps are factored in, Lando stands a reasonable chance of finishing on top.
