Is Ferrari the right choice for Hamilton?
24 July 2024The Singapore Grand Prix, 2012: Lewis Hamilton’s dejected silhouette disappears from view, trudging away from his pacey, but ultimately, defective McLaren MP4-27 F1 car. His hand was forced, other options considered; teams that were able to provide him with the championship-winning machinery his once-in-a-generation driver reputation warranted.
The majority, if not all of the paddock, questioned his acumen at the time. A pivot to an underperforming Mercedes outfit was not one befitting a champion of Lewis’ talents. But less than two years later, at the start of the 2014 season, the tune had changed. His once foolish call rebranded as inspired, and the following eight seasons were some of the most successful of any driver-team combination in the sport’s history.
Now poised for his switch to the scarlet Scuderia, Lewis stands before a similar precipice. At the beginning of the 2024 season, when Mercedes was on the back foot and Ferrari looked the most credible threat to Max Verstappen, Lewis’ latest switch seemed equally as shrewd as the last. But now, a resurgence for the Brackley squad and concurrent dip in form for the prancing horse has seen those decade-old questions reemerge. The seven-time champion’s judgement once more a topic of contention.
Although the adage ‘past performance is not indicative of future results’ rings true, a look back through the F1 history books may shed some light on what awaits Hamilton in his bid for that elusive eighth title in resplendent red.
Hamilton x Mercedes at Silverstone: the scorecard doesn’t lie
The combined form of Hamilton and Mercedes at Silverstone speaks for itself; Hamilton is the only driver to win eight times at a single circuit with one manufacturer (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2024). Together, they have also achieved the remarkable feat of 11 consecutive podiums from 2014 to 2024, the most back-to-back rostrums of any driver with one team at a single circuit.
READ MORE: Lewis Hamilton’s top five Silverstone moments
The first and only time he failed to reach the podium at Silverstone while at the wheel of a Mercedes was in 2013, a race he led for the first seven laps before a puncture put pay to hopes of a home win during his first British Grand Prix outing with the team.
Mercedes in the ground effect regulations era
Prior to the midway point of the 2024 season, Mercedes had won just once since start of the modern ground effect era in 2022, and that win came courtesy of George Russell at the 2022 Sao Paulo Grand Prix. That season, Lewis finished sixth in the drivers’ standings, his worst result at the end of an F1 season so far. A far cry from their all-conquering form of years past.
In recent races, however, Mercedes has enjoyed an upturn in form with George taking victory in Austria as well as pole position at the British Grand Prix, before Lewis made history with his ninth Silverstone win. He’s since taken an astonishing 200th F1 podium at the Hungaroring.
RESULTS: Hamilton takes record-breaking ninth Silverstone win
Ferrari’s evaporating pace
By comparison, Ferrari’s early season ‘best of the rest’ status seems to have fallen away. The Scuderia may have taken convincing victories in Australia and Monaco, but in the last five races, they have picked up just one podium – a lucky third in Austria owing to the Max Verstappen/Lando Norris clash – compared to Mercedes’ five. They may have looked closer to the pace in Hungary than they have in a while, but they still conceded second in the Constructors’ standings to McLaren.
What must Lewis and the Scuderia do to keep up the Silverstone streak?
There are several areas of concern that Hamilton will undoubtedly want to iron out upon his arrival at the team; high-speed stability and pace in cooler conditions are both traits absent from Ferrari’s current car that are vital for success at the British Grand Prix. Then comes the conversation of team strategy which has been problematic, to say the least in the modern era.
The good news for Ferrari is that the field spread is very tight this season, and small changes can make a big difference as Mercedes has already proven. There’s plenty of scope for said change in the technical department, too, following Enrico Cardile’s departure from Aston Martin.
That’s not to say that Ferrari has performed poorly in previous British Grand Prix, far from it in fact. Carlos Sainz won in red on British soil as recently as 2022, with Sebastien Vettel and Fernando Alonso also taking victory for the Scuderia in 2018 and 2011 respectively. Charles Leclerc and Alonso also came close to wins in 2021 and 2012.
There’s work to do for Lewis to replicate past results, too. He must adapt to a new car quickly, one with fundamental differences from the one he’s been accustomed to for over a decade. Likewise, with a new team, he’ll have to gel with new people around him and acclimatise to an entirely different dynamic.
READ MORE: Top five moments from the 2022 British Grand Prix
If some of that past form can be recaptured, aspects refined within the team and Lewis adapts to his new surroundings quickly, there’s every chance he could continue his extraordinary form at Silverstone, adding to his win and podium tally. Who knows, the famed wet weather prowess that he deployed en route to his 2024 victory may be called upon if the car is unable to fight at the front in the dry.
Culture shock
When Lewis announced his move to Ferrari before the 2024 season had even begun, many felt it was a statement of intent, that impatience had gotten the better of him waiting for Mercedes to return to previous levels of dominance. But when he joins the Scuderia in 2025, he’ll have more to worry about than just the pace of the car.
READ MORE: Lewis Hamilton's move to Ferrari for the 2025 season confirmed
Lewis will become the first full-time driver from the UK to drive for Ferrari since Eddie Irvine in 1999 and the first from England since Nigel Mansell in 1990. With that, comes significant disparities in culture and ways of working which could present as much of a challenge as the racing itself. He’s only switched teams once before in his F1 career, and Maranello will be about as different from Woking or Brackley as you can get.
That being said, he has familiarity on his side, having worked with Fred Vasseur early in his career. The pair share a fantastic relationship and won junior titles together in GP2 – the precursor to the FIA Formula 2 Championship – and Formula 3 Euro Series with the ART and ASM teams.
What now for Mercedes and Ferrari?
Mercedes is on the crest of a wave following two victories, a pole position and a further podium in the last three races. Small tweaks have made significant changes to the pace of the car and on their current trajectory, they could soon be challenging Red Bull and McLaren as the fastest cars on the grid.
Ferrari, meanwhile, needs to rebound quickly following a tricky handful of races, but the car is fundamentally fast. As McLaren showed in the middle of 2023 and Mercedes has shown this year, significant gains can be made if you play your development cards right.
Beyond 2024, it's anyone’s guess. The 2025 season is touted to be wide open and even more fiercely contested than this season. But the real opportunity comes in 2026 with a new set of regulations. Historically, Mercedes have done well during new eras of regulations, particularly when it comes to engine overhauls like in 2014. But Ferrari also made a strong start in 2017 when aerodynamics rules were dramatically altered.
So, the question remains: has Lewis Hamilton made the right call moving to Ferrari? Only time will tell.
