How 2024 MotoGP’s thrilling title fight is set to go to the wire
23 October 2024The 2024 MotoGP season is nearing its conclusion, with the 20-round campaign set to reach a thrilling crescendo at the traditional finale in Valencia. There’s been a sense of déjà vu about this year’s title battle, with reigning champ Pecco Bagnaia facing off against Jorge Martin, but how is the picture shaping up with two rounds to spare?
2023 flashbacks
MotoGP fans will remember the great season-long battle between Martin and Bagnaia over the course of 2023. On that occasion, the factory Ducati rider came out on top with consistent wins and podiums in the Grand Prix, while Martin took control of the Sprints.
Things began to unravel for Martin in the main races, where there are twice as many points. That allowed Bagnaia to come through and take the crown. He didn’t win a Sprint in the second half of the season, but strong Grand Prix performances shaped his campaign and eventually, resulted in the title as the chequered flag fell in Valencia.
It was a year of absolute dominance for Ducati, who were rarely off the top step of the podium and the expectation was that this would continue into 2024.
The story so far
Just 17 points separate Martin and Bagnaia in the Spanish rider’s favour heading into the final two rounds, with 37 on the table at each event. However, small point differences between positions can make it tricky for riders to make up sizeable margins unless their rivals suffer DNFs.
The role reversal means that Bagnaia is the hunter, a role he played in 2021 against Fabio Quartararo, while Martin is in the unfamiliar position of having everything to lose defending a championship lead.
Early momentum was split between both Bagnaia and Martin, with two Grand Prix wins apiece in the first five rounds. Bagnaia, who has picked up the pace in the Sprint races in 2024, then went on a tear of four Grand Prix wins before a couple of crashes – with Alex Marquez at Aragon and on his own at Misano – allowing Martin to claw back the gap.
Martin has built his championship more through consistency; however, his run was interrupted by a crash at the Spanish Grand Prix and a disastrous race at San Marino with poorly timed bike swaps in tricky conditions.
Since then, the pair have been trading blows on track, keeping the championship battle intense as the season progresses. In the last four GPs alone, Martin has taken three second-place finishes and one victory while Bagnaia has taken a pair of thirds and a pair of wins; just three points difference in Martin's favour so its very fine margins.
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Who else could influence the title?
Bagnaia has his wingman in Silverstone winner Enea Bastianini who will be expected to play his part. Bastianini has featured towards the front plenty of times in 2024 – including a controversial win over Martin at Misano – but not consistently enough to mount a serious title bid. He is also leaving the team at the end of the year to go to KTM, adding more fuel to the fire over any potential team orders.
Replacing Bastianini at the factory Ducati outfit, however, is Marc Marquez. The ‘Smiling Assassin’ has been back to his best since taking his first win on a Ducati back in Aragon, and is arguably the in-form rider in the championship right now having won as recently as Phillip Island. He will be in a position to continue taking points away from Bagnaia and Martin, despite being on a year-old Desmosedici.
The Aprilias of Maverick Vinales and Aleix Espargaro have occasionally shone through the year, but this was more towards the start of the year. KTM hotshot Pedro Acosta has also featured throughout the year, but injured his shoulder during the Australian Grand Prix Sprint and his form could be in question as the season draws to a close.
The final two rounds
The final two rounds are those in Malaysia and Valencia. Bagnaia has previously shone at Valencia while Malaysia last year, went Bastianini’s way. These rounds have all proven to be unpredictable in the past; circuits with challenging layouts where anything can happen.
There are many more twists and turns to come in the final races of the season, and both Bagnaia and Martin would be worthy champions at the end of it.
