Down to the wire: Will Martín take the MotoGP championship title in a sprint race for the first time?

GP in Barcelona. Although Valencia was initially set as the venue for the title-deciding final weekend, recent local flooding has made it impossible to stage the event there. In solidarity with the affected region, MotoGP will instead return to Barcelona to host the final round of the 2024 Championship.

Currently in the lead, Jorge Martín is 24 points ahead of his nearest rival, Francesco Bagnaia, after extending his advantage by seven points at the recent Malaysian Grand Prix. During the sprint race, Bagnaia crashed out while Martín took the win, and although Bagnaia claimed victory in Sunday’s Grand Prix, Martín’s second-place finish kept him in a stronger position heading into this final weekend.

While Martín enters the weekend with a clear advantage, Bagnaia still has a chance to upset Martín's campaign and claim his third consecutive championship in 2024.

Can Martín Take the First Championship Win in a Sprint Race?

It’s certainly possible. If Martín extends his lead over Bagnaia by just two points to 26 by the end of the sprint race, he’ll secure the championship. Even if Martín wins with Bagnaia right behind him in second, he will still become champion.

But what if another rider wins? In that case, Martín still has several good opportunities. If he finishes second with Bagnaia in third, he’ll clinch the title. If both finish further down the ranks - say, Bagnaia in eighth - Martín only needs to finish sixth or better.

If Martín can finish ahead of Bagnaia in a high point-scoring position, he could potentially clinch the championship before Sunday’s Grand Prix.

How Can Martín Win at the Grand Prix?

What if the championship isn’t settled in the Sprint Race? If Bagnaia finishes ahead of Martín, or if Martín crashes, then Sunday’s feature race becomes the decider.

If Martín scores no points in the Sprint Race and Bagnaia wins, the points gap would narrow to just 12 heading into Sunday’s Grand Prix. This would be the hardest path to victory for Martín, but even then, he would only need to finish third if Bagnaia wins the Grand Prix.

Unless Martín faces a major setback by finishing outside the points in the sprint and below third on Sunday while Bagnaia wins, Martín is poised to claim his first World Championship title.

How Could Bagnaia Win the Championship This Weekend?

Bagnaia still has a shot at another title this weekend. With ten GP wins in 2024 compared to Martín’s three, Bagnaia’s record could tip the scales if the two end up close in points. If he wins both the sprint and main race while Martín finishes outside the points in the sprint and in fourth or lower in the Grand Prix, Bagnaia would become champion. If Martín finishes in fourth, Bagnaia would take the title on countback, having won more Grands Prix throughout the season.

No matter the outcome, 2024 has been another hotly contested and dramatic season of MotoGP action. With shake-ups across the board and a potential new reigning champion, 2025 promises even more nail-biting two-wheel action. Don’t miss out—get your tickets for the 2025 British Grand Prix MotoGP™ in May, on sale now.